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Saturday's Exclusive Article
Is Oracle Undervalued as Cloud Growth Accelerates?Reported by Thomas Hughes. Published: 4/29/2026. 
Key Points
- Oracle's sell-off is overdone, overblown, overextended, and ready to rebound.
- This isn't a no-revenue, no-profit, tech startup burning cash; debt is backed up by contracted revenue.
- Double-digit upside is the near-term outlook, triple-digit the long, and upcoming results will be a trigger to buy.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
Oracle’s (NYSE: ORCL) market appears disconnected from reality, though that disconnect is beginning to narrow. The stock was punished like an early-stage tech start-up with no revenue or path to profit because of rising debt, but Oracle is not a cash-burning research story. It is a legacy technology company that has successfully shifted to the cloud, now operating as a hyperscaler serving the larger datacenter ecosystem across regions and clouds. Yes, debt is swelling, but much of it finances necessary capital expenditures (CapEx) tied to contracted revenue. That contracted revenue comes from existing clients who represent the bulk — if not the entirety — of the hyperscale universe. In this setup, Oracle largely needs to build the data centers to recognize the contracted revenue; a substantial revenue stream is already committed and should be sufficient to service the debt. Since the March 10 earnings report, Oracle has reported expanded deals with Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) and Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN), increasing both usage and Oracle’s exposure, and it has increased capacity with Bloom Energy (NYSE: BE).
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Bloom Energy is important to Oracle’s buildout because it provides an easily deployable, standalone power option suited for data centers. While it relies on carbon-based fuels in some configurations, Bloom’s approach produces energy through chemical processes that can be greener than traditional combustion. Oracle has contracted enough capacity to support as many as 56 individual data centers, depending on colocation factors — roughly half of the company’s near-term planned construction. Oracle currently operates about 160 data centers and intends to nearly double that footprint in the near term, with founder Larry Ellison stating a goal of having at least one center in every country over time. Institutions and Analysts Buy Into Oracle’s Value OpportunityOracle’s stock pullback created a notable value opportunity. The shares trade at roughly 23X forecasted 2026 earnings — a discount relative to some peers — while longer-term consensus projections imply substantially more upside. Those longer-range forecasts suggest ORCL could be trading at roughly 5X earnings by 2033 under certain scenarios, implying potential upside of about 400%. If the market gives Oracle a valuation closer to the 30X–35X multiples common to large tech names, upside could rise toward the 600%–700% range. Insider and institutional selling tracked Oracle’s 2025 price peak and the subsequent pullback. The data show both groups selling into the rally, which is unsurprising after a large run-up. Importantly, insider selling tapered off in early 2026 while institutions shifted back toward accumulation. Continued institutional buying would help establish a price floor and support the reversal signaled by the charts. 
Oracle appears to have bottomed in early 2026 and established a support base. It was among the first to rebound after the AI-driven disruption, and price action suggests potential for a sustained recovery. Recent small red candles sit at the top of a larger green candle and above key moving averages. The relevant averages include the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the longer-term 150-day EMA, which reflect short-term traders and longer-term buy-and-hold investors, respectively. With those averages converging, a decisive move above the 150-day EMA would be an important confirmation of a reversal. Analyst trends indicate that crossing that tipping point is plausible. While downward price-target revisions contributed to ORCL’s decline, the market response was likely exaggerated. Early Q2 takeaways include expanded coverage, a firm Moderate Buy consensus, a 75% buy-side bias, and a steadying target that implies roughly 55% upside from the current moving average cluster. A clear catalyst could prompt analysts to lift price targets and bring high-end targets in the $400 range back into play. As it stands, reaching the consensus target would place Oracle near the middle of its longer-term valuation range, while the high end represents more than 100% upside from current levels. Oracle Has Catalysts AheadThe next obvious catalyst is Oracle’s fiscal Q4 earnings release, scheduled for early June. The company is expected to show accelerating earnings growth and solid profits, though margins may contract as debt servicing costs rise. The market will focus on guidance and backlog: investors need to see a clear path to acceleration and stronger-than-anticipated long-term revenue and earnings. Less visible catalysts include additional deals and surprise reactions to results from other AI leaders. Beyond the hyperscale data-center story, Oracle’s core database business continues to perform strongly and should sustain growth after the datacenter buildout normalizes. Recent product updates include a range of agentic tools aimed at enterprises across verticals, helping to cement Oracle as a key provider of AI infrastructure and services. |
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