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More Reading from MarketBeat.com
Does Marriott’s Massive Rally Mean It’s Time to Check Out?Authored by Jennifer Ryan Woods. Date Posted: 4/28/2026. 
Key Points
- Marriott’s stock has surged more than 50% over the past year and over 140% in five years, significantly outperforming the broader hotel industry, which has risen about 23% over the past year amid strong travel demand.
- While fourth-quarter results were mixed, with EPS missing estimates despite a revenue beat, the company still delivered solid full-year growth, including 4.3% net room expansion, 2% global RevPAR growth, and more than $4 billion returned to shareholders.
- Despite a positive outlook and improving sentiment, the stock is trading slightly above the consensus price target, leaving analysts divided on how much upside remains over the next year.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) has enjoyed an impressive run. With shares trading near all-time highs, investors are weighing whether the momentum can continue or if it’s time to take profits. Shares of the hospitality giant are up more than 50% over the past year and over 140% in five years. Those gains have been supported by strong travel demand, particularly in the luxury segment, which has buoyed the broader hotel space. Even so, Marriott has outpaced the hotel and motel industry, which rose about 23% over the past year.
The recent momentum pushed Marriott to an all-time high, but the path forward is less certain. Wall Street remains generally bullish on the sector, yet analysts differ on how much upside remains over the next year. Marriott Q4 Results: Small EPS Miss, but Core Travel Trends Held UpOver the past eight quarters, Marriott’s results have been mixed — four beats, one meet and three misses. In its most recent report, filed Feb. 10, the company’s earnings per share slightly missed estimates while revenue topped expectations. Marriott posted fourth-quarter EPS of $2.58, up from $2.45 a year earlier but three cents shy of analyst estimates. Revenue was $6.69 billion, a year-over-year increase of more than 4% and about $18 million above forecasts. The quarter capped a solid year for the company: in 2025 net rooms grew over 4.3% and global revenue per available room (RevPAR) rose 2%. The company also returned more than $4 billion to shareholders, aided by its asset-light model of managing and franchising hotels rather than owning properties. The luxury segment remained a standout as higher-end consumers continued to prioritize travel. By contrast, the value-oriented select-service segment lagged. Other pockets of weakness included Greater China, affected by macro headwinds and softer consumer sentiment, and the business transient segment, which was hurt by the U.S. government shutdown. 2026 Guidance: Room Growth Accelerates as RevPAR ExpandsFor 2026, Marriott expects net room growth to accelerate to 4.5%–5% and forecasts global RevPAR growth of 1.5%–2.5%. It also projects gross fee revenues to rise 8%–10%, to about $5.9 billion to $5.96 billion. Marriott anticipates adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization to increase roughly 8%–10% to about $5.8 billion–$5.9 billion, and adjusted diluted EPS to grow 13%–15%. Wall Street reacted favorably: shares jumped nearly 9% after the report, closing near $359. Although the stock pulled back into the $320s by the end of March, sentiment improved in April, renewing investor enthusiasm. Positive catalysts included news of a move into the luxury wellness space through a partnership with Italy’s Lefay, favorable geopolitical developments and several analysts raising their price targets. On April 21, shares reached an intraday high of $380. After the Run-Up: What Analyst Targets Actually ImplyThe consensus 12-month price target has risen over the past year to roughly $357, up from about $314 three months earlier and around $273 a year ago. Despite those increases, the average target sits roughly 1% below the current share price. Analysts are split. In 15 price adjustments over the last year, seven analysts see downside, with the lowest target at $285 (about 20% below the current price). Eight analysts expect gains, with a high target of $415 implying roughly 15% upside. Overall sentiment is moderately bullish, reflected in a consensus rating of Moderate Buy: nine analysts rate the stock Buy (including one Strong Buy) and eight rate it Hold. Valuation Check: A Premium Multiple With Less Room for ErrorAfter a strong run, Marriott’s valuation may give some investors pause. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio near 38x, more than double the roughly 18x multiple for the broader hotel and motel industry. Still, that multiple is lower than one close peer, Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HLT), another asset-light operator. Hilton, which has also performed well — up about 51% over the past year — trades around 55x. On a price-to-earnings-growth (PEG) basis, Marriott is trading at about 3.2x, versus Hilton’s roughly 2.9x. Marriott remains a high-quality operator with solid fundamentals, but with shares near peak levels and trading at a premium to the industry, many investors may wait to see how the company’s first-quarter results on May 6 come in before making their next move. |
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