When a recession hits, being "good" isn't good enough... Good dividend-seeking investors focus on strong companies. They want to park their money in businesses that can avoid cutting dividends, even when profits fall.
In a Recession, You Have to Be Better Than 'Good'
By Marc Gerstein, director of research, Chaikin Analytics
When a recession hits, being "good" isn't good enough...
Good dividend-seeking investors focus on strong companies. They want to park their money in businesses that can avoid cutting dividends, even when profits fall.
Many such opportunities exist. The Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund (VIG) is filled with them. But VIG's yield is only 1.95%.
DVY yields 3.05%. But so far in 2022, its total return (including price change and dividends) is -3.2%.
Obviously, we want to do better than -3.2%. That's not always possible in a bear market. But over time, opportunities to reinvest dividends can add up.
At any rate, DVY has been far better than VIG. The latter's year-to-date return is roughly -16.3%. Plus, it has a smaller dividend than DVY... So it will have a much harder time catching up.
The SPDR S&P 500 Fund (SPY) fared even worse. Its yield is only 1.54%. And its year-to-date return is around -19.8%.
All of these are good funds. But none of them are good enough. We need to do better.
As you know, we're on the verge of a recession. That means serious pain ahead for returns – and even lower yields.
Fortunately, we can do better. All it takes is letting the experts trade a strategy you might not have heard of...
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The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have posted the longest losing streaks in a decade. And there could be a lot more pain ahead. But there's ONE simple strategy that can help you make bigger potential gains and more income with dramatically less risk. Totally outside of stocks (or anything like options, cryptos, or leverage)... with LEGAL PROTECTIONS owed to you. Click here for full details.
The Amplify CWP Enhanced Dividend Income Fund (DIVO) is a "buy write" exchange-traded fund ("ETF"). That means it also sells call options, which give the buyer the right to buy the stock from the ETF at a pre-specified price (the "premium") by a specified date. (More on this shortly.)
DIVO seems better-positioned to withstand further market and economic deterioration. It yields 5.19% today.
This is not a high-risk "junk dividend" fund. In fact, VIG also holds 57% of DIVO's portfolio. We're talking about household names like Procter & Gamble (PG), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and McDonald's (MCD). And the rest of the companies are of similar quality.
DIVO is an actively managed ETF. Its managers aim for a 2% to 3% yield from its good-quality holdings.
In terms of its call options, DIVO gets to keep this money if an option expires worthless. The same goes if the stock stays below the "strike price" – the price at which the call can be exercised. If the stock rises, DIVO will have to sell for less of a gain than it could have earned by holding.
Either way, the premium counts as income that gets distributed to shareholders. Management aims to distribute enough of this income to add 2% to 4% to the yield. (This is how DIVO produced a 5.19% trailing 12-month yield.)
As we said, DIVO loses money on stocks that fall below option strike prices. But it cushions those losses using the premiums it earns from expired options. And DIVO can use that money to sell new options and collect more premium income – rinse and repeat.
Plus, DIVO pays monthly dividends. That gives shareholders more opportunity to reinvest cash at lower prices. (DVY and VIG each pay dividends only once per quarter.)
Take a look at what happened during the market's worst days in June...
DVY, with its riskier companies, was the worst performer. If the market deteriorates further, we can expect this underperformance to continue.
Notice that DIVO lost the least during the worst part of June. And even with the recent bounce back, it matches the higher-quality, lower-risk VIG.
And don't forget that it does this while maintaining a significantly higher yield... all because of its buy-write strategy.
Now, call writing is a very respectable, risk-reducing way to generate income. But options can be a bit complicated. And there are other, riskier option strategies.
In short, when ignorant investors are careless, it can cost them big. If you're interested in call writing, DIVO lets you delegate the grunt work to the experts.
Good investing,
Marc Gerstein
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-1.57%
2
23
5
S&P 500
-2.01%
35
345
117
Nasdaq
-3.05%
7
63
29
Small Caps
-1.85%
238
1157
505
Bonds
+0.47%
Energy
+2.70%
3
18
0
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks remain Bearish. Major indexes are all bearish.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
HES
+5.57%
OXY
+4.77%
MRO
+4.37%
FANG
+4.35%
LVS
+4.04%
Losers
ETSY
-8.20%
ENPH
-7.53%
NKE
-6.99%
SEDG
-6.46%
MTCH
-6.38%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Reporting Today
Rating
Before Open
After Close
GIS
PAYX
MKC
No earnings reporting today.
Earnings Surprises
PRGS Progress Software Corporation
Q2
$0.97
Beat by $0.12
AVAV AeroVironment, Inc.
Q4
$0.32
Beat by $0.02
SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation
Q2
$2.72
Beat by $0.07
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Utilities
+5.69%
Real Estate
+4.05%
Health Care
+3.95%
Staples
+2.20%
Financial
+1.69%
Communication
+1.24%
Industrials
+0.97%
Information Technology
+0.88%
Discretionary
-0.02%
Materials
-0.68%
Energy
-0.99%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Insurance Services
10
39
2
Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +14.15%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #1 of 21 subsectors and has moved up 1 slot over the past week.
Top Stocks
RGA
Reinsurance Group of
UNM
Unum Group
AXS
AXIS Capital Holding
* * * *
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