What is going to happen next?
Sell short Yesterday's savaging of the stock market signals, to me, the beginning of the next leg down in this bear market. For the last couple of months, I've been telling you: - We were going to have a normal seasonal rally
- The rally would be concentrated in sectors that had been hurt in the first six months of the year
- Crypto would rally
- But this rally would end in the middle or end of August
We are now there. All I was waiting for was a short term signal that the bull run is over. I think today was that signal. Here's why: - There was a whiff of panic in the air.
- We closed lower than the closes of the last 8 sessions.
- Seasonally, we should be a bear leg now that lasts at least 2-3 months.
- We are in a recession.
- EPS are expected to start declining.
- Inflation is heading higher.
- The Fed is tightening.
Now is the time to exit those NASDAQ type positions and go back to: - High dividend stocks
- Consumer staples
- Utilities
- Inverse ETFs
- Shorting key sectors like home builders and foreign stocks.
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Words To Live By The 80/20 Manager by Richard Koch While it is unusual to see such extreme concentration in quarterly gains, if you take the last twenty years, more than 100 percent of the gain in earnings from the S&P 500 has come from that same tiny proportion of the total—the top ten stocks. The index as a whole has shown robust earnings growth of 7–10 percent per annum over the last two decades. But if you exclude the top ten stocks, the remaining 490 firms have had negative average growth of 3.3 percent in the same period. | |
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