Our friends at Derby City Insights share how finding the perfect stock is a lot like finding the perfect horse…
How to Pick 'Thoroughbred' Stocks
Editor's Note: This report first appeared in Derby City Daily. To catch up on similar must-read reports and to learn more about Co-Founder Andy Swan and his team, you can click here.
When Mage triumphed in the 149th running of the Kentucky Derby, the three-year-old thoroughbred overcame 15-1 odds to do so.
15-1 odds.
A longshot.
That win — along with my family's lifelong involvement in horse racing — has me thinking about longshots here of late.
A lot.
In the world of horse racing, one name that doesn't quite have the same recognition as Seabiscuit or Secretariat, but stands as a testament to unexpected success, is Mine That Bird.
That gelding's journey to victory in the 2009 Kentucky Derby stands as a valuable lesson in horse racing — and the factors that can predict “longshot” champions.
Mine That Bird was a longshot in every sense of the word.
Bred in Canada, he lacked the pedigree of many of his competitors. His sire was Birdstone, who had won the Belmont Stakes, but his dam was a relatively unknown mare.
Standing only 15.2 hands high, Mine That Bird was noticeably undersized compared to the typical thoroughbred. He was seen as a 50-1 Derby longshot.
But there were signs of his upside — hints at what was to come.
For instance:
He demonstrated significant speed and endurance — even if he hadn't maintained that performance level.
He was paired with an experienced jockey, Calvin Borel, who'd notched the Kentucky Derby win in 2007.
That brings me back to the 2009 Derby.
Race morning was ugly: The track was a rain-abused, sloppy mess.
And here's where Mine That Bird's real attributes began to shine through… where perceived negatives became positives.
His “smallness” meant he was more agile than the bigger horses he was racing against — especially on the sloppy track that day. Borel expertly guided his horse through the pack.
And then — in one of the most thrilling finishes in Derby history — Mine That Bird made a power move on the rail and pulled away to win by 6¾ lengths.
With the largest margin in more than 60 years, the horse so many “experts” had dismissed out of hand was now a Derby champion.
In hindsight, the signs were there.
As surprising as it seems, those “signs” can also be used to identify off-the-radar investment winners — like the energy drink maker we identified three years ago whose stock recently hit an all-time high.
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Past performance as a juvenile, an experienced jockey, and a resilience that lent itself well to the adverse track conditions on race day…
Mine That Bird's story reminds us that in horse racing, it's not always the obvious choice — or the biggest horse — that comes out on top.
This same is true of investing and trading.
When it comes to stocks, some of the biggest wins come from the smallest players — the lesser-known, off-the-radar names — that that are just starting to show signs of explosive growth.
Companies that seem to “come out of the pack” to win.
Among the companies we follow, healthy energy drink maker Celsius Holdings Inc. (CELH), a brand that's rocketing in popularity among fitness nuts, checks off those boxes.
In fact, it's checked our “winner” box at least three times in the last three years.
And Celsius has yet to disappoint…
Check out the gains logged since each recommendation to our Opportunity Alerts subscribers:
Every afternoon a select number of subscribers receive an email. Inside this email is a very short, straightforward set of instructions. For those that decide to follow the instructions — up-front guaranteed cash payments are provided.
Some can make $70 a day. Some can make $700 a day. Still others can make as much as $70,000 a day. In fact, some are using these emails to fund their ENTIRE retirement.
Compared with other, bigger peers like Monster Beverage Corp. (MNST), Celsius has the strongest level of consumer demand growth.
Purchase Intent mentions are pacing 18% higher year-over-year as of this writing.
Its beverages are healthier than its rival's energy drinks, which tend to be sugary calorie adders.
And with a savvy distribution deal with PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) putting its drinks in store coolers across the country, Celsius demand — and revenues — are soaring.
The company announced 95% year-over-year revenue growth for the first quarter of 2023; it also reported record net income for the quarter that topped what it made for the entire year of 2022.
Oh, and Celsius is doing all that while also maintaining the highest levels of Consumer Happiness (currently hovering around 75%).
When you couple this super-positive consumer data with a continuation of the macro trend — a focus on “good-for-you” food and drinks — you've checked all three of the boxes.
Add in strong distribution partnerships (like PepsiCo), and you're talking about a “bet” you can feel comfortable making in the immediate term.
We'll continue to provide updates as data progresses and share other long-shot winners with members along the way.
In case you missed it the first time around, you can check out our initial Derby City Daily report on Celsius right here.
TradeSmith is not registered as an investment adviser and operates under the publishers' exemption of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940. The investments and strategies discussed in TradeSmith's content do not constitute personalized investment advice. Any trading or investment decisions you take are in reliance on your own analysis and judgment and not in reliance on TradeSmith. There are risks inherent in investing and past investment performance is not indicative of future results.
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