Stocks End Slightly Higher, Focus Is On The Fed This Week  Image: Bigstock Stocks closed narrowly higher with the big 3 indexes eking out small gains. The UAW strike enters its fifth day today. Yesterday, the head of the UAW Union said there's still a long way to go to get a deal. In other news, yesterday's Housing Market Index slipped to 45 vs. last month's 50 and views for the same. Today we'll get the Housing Starts and Permits report. And the Fed begins their 2-day FOMC meeting. Tomorrow they'll announce their decision on rates. At the moment, the odds of a rate hike are only at roughly 1%. But the odds shift to 34% when they meet in November. As low as the odds are for a hike on Wednesday, nothing is set in stone. But that's how things are looking at the moment. While last week's PCE report showed inflation ticking down for the core rate, it ticked up on the headline number as energy prices continue to rise. Wednesday's FOMC Announcement comes out at 2:00 PM ET. And that's followed by the Fed Chair Press Conference at 2:30. Traders will also be counting down the days to see if Congress can avoid a potential government shutdown. With the current fiscal year ending on September 30, and the new one beginning on October 1, they need to pass a budget (11 spending bills) to keep the government running. They have 12 days to get this sorted out. We also have only 12 days to see if the market can turn things around this month. Actually, there's only 9 trading days left. Statistically, the odds favor a rally. Since 1950, if the S&P is up by more than 15% thru August (it was up 17.4% this year), with August being down (which it was), then September is typically up with a median gain of 3.3%, and a win ratio of 86% (6 out of 7 instances). Regardless of how September shakes out, the stats are still on the side of the bulls for the rest of the year. History shows if the market is up more than 10% thru July, and August is down, the remainder of the year is up 100% of the time with an average gain of 9.9% (median of 8.7%). Quite frankly, those odds are even better that the September only odds. Either way, it would be great if both stats land in the green this year. See you tomorrow,  Kevin Matras
Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research | 
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