Stocks On Pace To Close Lower For The Week Image: Bigstock Stocks closed mostly lower yesterday with only the Dow managing a modest gain. With only one day left, stocks are poised for a down week. News that China will ban government officials from using iPhones for work, or even bringing them into the office, weighed on Apple, and the broader markets yesterday. In other news, Weekly Jobless Claims came in better than expected, falling by -13,000 to 216,000 vs. the consensus for an increase to 238K. The smoother 4-week moving average fell to 229.25K vs. last month's 237.75K. And the Productivity and Costs report showed nonfarm productivity dipped slightly to 3.5% y/y vs. last month's 3.7% and views for 3.6%. Unit labor costs ticked up to 2.2% y/y vs. last month's 1.6% and views for 1.7%. Today we'll get Wholesale Inventories, the Baker Hughes Rig Count report, and Consumer Credit. Inflation concerns and rate hike uncertainty continues to generate volatility. Especially with the price of energy back on the rise. Even though we appear to be nearing the end of the rate hike cycle with only about 5% odds of the Fed raising rates in two weeks, those odds shift to 40% for another rate hike in November. So while a pause might be in the cards for this month, the rate hike question will continue to linger for at least another couple of months. While the odds are low for another rate increase on September 20, it's not a done deal. And we'll get two more inflation reports next week that could influence the Fed's decision: the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on September 13, and the Produce Price Index (PPI) on September 14. September is off to a less than auspicious start with all of the major indexes in the red. But statistically, the odds favor a rally. Since 1950, if the S&P is up by more than 15% thru August (it was up 17.4% this year), with August being down (which it was), then September is typically up with a median gain of 3.3%, and a win ratio of 86% (6 out of 7 instances). Those are good odds. And we've got plenty of month left to go. Best, Kevin Matras Executive Vice President, Zacks Investment Research |
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