| Swan Dive — May 9, 2025 The Pope Goes American Andrew Packer Americans love an underdog story. The triumph over long odds. Coming out on top, and doing so gracefully. Chicago native Robert Prevost has done just that.
Despite mere 1% odds in betting markets yesterday, Prevost will become the first American pope, Pope Leo XIV, leading the world’s estimated 1.4 billion Catholics.  Pick your joke: Deep dish pizza references, a love for the Bears and disdain for Green Bay, or a pope with a thick Chicago accent.
Not a joke: Several news sites reported that members of the College of Cardinals watched the film Conclave while in their conclave. And that there are signs of a potential spiritual renewal in Western Civilization – which could now be led by an American. A Closer Look at America’s Fiscal Trainwreck The U.S. government can’t do anything right. Their fiscal year for 2025, which started in October 2024, is now seven months through. From Uncle Sam’s consolidated cash flow statement:  The first 7 months of FY 2025 produced a deficit of $1.1 trillion. No bueno, as Addison would say. That’s $196 billion more than the deficit recorded in the same period last fiscal year. A trend in the wrong direction.
This budget was passed during the Biden Administration (and a GOP House), but with some of the budget proposals being floated by Trump and the narrow GOP majority-led House, the trend isn’t looking good.
The bond market still doesn’t seem fazed by the possibility of a debt crisis. Interest rates largely held steady this week. But the train has left the station, and continues to gather up steam. What happens when we run out of track?
 When Elon Musk—the man who's revolutionizing space travel, electric vehicles, and neural interfaces—encounters a technology that leaves him speechless, investors should take notice.
His one-word reaction to this breakthrough?
"Wow."
While the media fixates on AI, this foundational technology silently reshapes our future.
The same innovation that stunned tech's greatest visionary could transform your financial future.
Details here…
Do What I Say, Not What I Do: Federal Reserve Edition According to Treasury News, the Fed bought $8.8 billion worth of 30-year bonds on Thursday.
This is on top of the $34.8 billion it bought earlier this week, making $43.6 billion in 4 days.
Typically, when the Fed buys, its balance sheet expands. And they usually expand the balance sheet to help bail something out. The Fed’s preferred term is Quantitative Easing (QE).
This isn’t quite QE yet. But it’s not exactly tightening either. And by buying 30-year bonds, if the Fed lowers interest rates later in the year as expected, the price of those bonds should rise.
We know that with rising interest rates the past few years, the Fed’s balance sheet has had some notable mark-to-market losses on its bond portfolio. Perhaps the Fed is just adjusting its balance sheet to goose some short-term profits this year. 📱 Missing: Altcoin Season Typically, bitcoin goes through a four-year price cycle. We’re in the year that should see the massive move higher – but also a price peak. That’s what happened in 2021, and 2017.
More importantly, those cycles were noted not for bitcoin’s massive returns, but for returns across the crypto space as a whole.
Cryptocurrency brokerage Coinbase (COIN) reported earnings after the bell last night. Revenue estimates were off by 87%.
What gives?
Retail investors aren’t flocking back to crypto just yet. We’ve noted that bitcoin has had strong dominance, at about 65% of the total crypto market.
In short, we haven’t seen altcoin season yet. And with institutional demand moving heavily into bitcoin, any altcoin season that we do see could be weaker than in prior cycles. Mark Jeftovic noted in Grey Swan Live! last week that this bitcoin bull run may occur without an altcoin season. 💸 Gates Sets a New Standard in Charitable Giving Love him or hate him, Bill Gates has set a strong standard in charitable giving.
The Gates Foundation has done considerable work to eliminate malaria in Africa, improve birthrates by reducing preventable deaths in mothers and babies, and alleviate extreme global poverty.
Today, Gates has given his Foundation a new mission: To shut down. Gates now plans to give away nearly all of his fortune today, $200 billion, within the next 20 years.
The goal? Make big progress on key items. And shut down the Gates Foundation no later than 2045.
Given that we already have plenty of institutions loaded with money and who seem to have lost sight of their original goals – Congress and Harvard, specifically – it’s refreshing to see a world-changing idea with a deadline behind it. 💵 Early Market Action Stocks closed slightly higher Thursday, adding to gains earlier in the week. But they closed well off their lows, which may be a sign of market fatigue setting in.
President Trump has hinted about lowering tariffs on China ahead of negotiations, which helped give markets a bit more of a boost going into morning trading.
“80% seems right,” states Trump. It’s certainly a big walk back from the 140% tariff rate – which could easily pop back next week if trade talks go poorly.
Gold has trended lower this week, fueled by positive trade headline news.
Bitcoin, which looked like was going to flip lower, instead burst past $100,000 to $103,000. It’s now off less than 5% from its all-time highs. And if it does keep going higher, $120,000 is next.
With markets now just a hair’s breadth away from being 20% off their recent lows, we could start a bull market – just weeks after we briefly entered bear market territory.
~ Andrew P.S. Your thoughts? Please send them here: addison@greyswanfraternity.com
How did we get here? Find out in these riveting reads: Demise of the Dollar, Financial Reckoning Day, and Empire of Debt — all three books are now available in their third post-pandemic editions. You might enjoy one or all three. 
(Or… simply pre-order Empire of Debt: We Came, We Saw, We Borrowed, now available at Amazon and Barnes & Noble or if you prefer one of these sites: Bookshop.org, Books-A-Million or Target.)
Please send your comments, reactions, opprobrium, vitriol and praise to: feedback@greyswanfraternity.com |
Post a Comment
Post a Comment