Everyone's a Genius Until They're Not
Let's be cautious about silver's track record. | It's the friend who shows up to the party three hours late, makes a scene, then disappears for six months. Yes, it's volatile. Yes, it can run. But it's also been "about to explode" since approximately 2011. | Trade it if you must, but remember, only trade it ABOVE its 20-day moving average... | And if you missed the most recent wave… wait. There will be another. Don't just chase. | 5. A Trade as Old as Disappointment | Let's keep going with silver… Because I own a bunch of it. | Crescat Capital's chart shows the gold-to-silver ratio approaching 100, which historically means silver should outperform. | The chart goes back to the 1970s, showing this pattern playing out before. | Smart money is positioning for mean reversion. | | Here's the thing about mean reversion trades: they work great except for the part where you have to time them. This is why I say that the optimal time to make a trade is when the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) crosses above its 20-day Exponential Moving Average… Not when it's overbought on both the Relative Strength Index and the Money Flow Index like it is today… | | Silver doesn't follow gold… it stumbles after it like a drunk wedding guest. | When it works, you look brilliant. | When it doesn't, you're explaining why you own a metal that's been "coiled like a spring" since the Obama administration. | 6. The $300 Trillion Debt Bomb Nobody Wants to Discuss | That Bravos Research chart should be terrifying. Global debt just crossed $300 trillion, accelerating since 1997 like a hockey stick designed by an economist on too much ADHD medication.... | | We've entered the "numbers are just concepts" phase of monetary policy. $300 trillion is so abstract it might as well be measured in unicorns. | Central banks say they're "monitoring the situation," which is code for "we're hoping inflation bails us out before anyone does the math." | The only debate left is whether we inflate it away slowly or all at once. | Place your bets accordingly. | 7. China's Manufacturing: The Engine Sputters | Finally… China. | The Caixin PMI just printed its worst reading since September 2022, breaking below the crucial 50 line. | For those keeping score, that's contractionary territory in the world's factory. The chart shows a clear downtrend that even the most optimistic China bull can't ignore. | | Yet markets are pricing in another stimulus miracle. | They'll probably get it. But I still think that a currency devaluation is coming. | Deglobalization isn't a theory anymore. It's showing up in the data. | That said… | China is becoming one of my favorite trades. And I'll explain how to do it tomorrow. | Tomorrow, I'll be at Market Masters at 8:45 am. Be sure to join us live here… | And check out the TheoTrade blog for insights from traders like Blake Young, Brandon Chapman, and Corey Rosenblum. | Stay positive, | Garrett Baldwin |
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