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This Chart May Make You Uncomfortable

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AN OXFORD CLUB PUBLICATION

Loyal reader since October 2021

Wealthy Retirement

Editor's Note: Below, Director of Trading Anthony Summers discusses the market's current valuation and why small caps look like a better value than large caps right now.

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Anthony Summers, Director of Trading, The Oxford Club

Anthony Summers

People hate when I show them this chart.

Most investors are perpetually Pollyanna-ish. If the market's up, all is well.

Not me.

I deal in facts, figures, and plain truths - whether they make me comfortable or not.

That's not cynicism. It's realism. And realism pays.

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So when I say people hate this chart, it's because there's nothing comfortable about it.

The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) ratio - also called P/E 10 - uses inflation-adjusted earnings averaged over the past decade. It smooths the cycle and gives a clearer long-term view of price versus earnings.

The chart below plots the CAPE of the S&P 500 in standard deviations from its long-term mean. In simple terms, it shows how far today's valuation sits from "normal."

Right now the reading is near three standard deviations above average.

Chart: More Proof Valuations Are High
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That is an extreme level by any historical yardstick. Readings that high show up only a tiny fraction of the time - roughly a few tenths of one percent.

For years, I've tried to alert investors to the market's rich valuation. But we live in a value-blind regime. Most folks only care about rising prices and earnings growth.

Those matter. But they're not everything.

When you focus on the right things - not just surface-level hype - you become a more principled, disciplined investor.

It doesn't mean you stop investing. It means you raise your standards.

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A market drenched in rich valuations isn't one to avoid. It's one that demands scrutiny and wisdom - the kind value investors have practiced for decades.

You weigh price against quality. You insist on a margin of safety. You accept that the crowd can be wrong for a long time.

Frankly, I like when most people ignore this. It gives me an edge. I look where others won't because they're busy chasing buzz. (My August 15 Value Meter column is a perfect example.)

Right now, the best values I see are in small caps. They trade at a clear discount to large caps.

Chart: The Case for Small Caps
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Over full market cycles, that's often where leadership flips and excess returns emerge. So long-term investors should be ecstatic about this.

History favors small caps on a global scale, which makes today a real opportunity.

But don't look only at the U.S.

Over the past 20 years, U.S. small caps have lagged large caps. But abroad, the story flips. In developed international markets - and in emerging markets - small caps have led.

Chart: Small-Caps Overseas
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Leadership rotates. Valuation gaps close. That is how cycles work.

The long-run data also suggests the U.S. gap is likely to narrow. Trends mean-revert, and current valuations help. (When you can buy durable small businesses at a discount while attention fixates on mega-cap winners, the odds tilt in your favor.)

That's why it's better to buy when small caps are out of favor - when focus is elsewhere and sentiment is sour. It's not about calling a top or a bottom. It's about treating price as a key part of the process and letting time do the heavy lifting.

Today, that discipline seems boring. Good. Boring sets you apart.

Take advantage of it.

Be excellent,

Anthony

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