Alex Müller and Georg Bednorz didn't want other scientists to find out about their research. They weren't afraid that someone might steal their idea...
Big Potential With a Decades-Old 'Crazy' Tech Idea
By Marc Chaikin, founder, Chaikin Analytics
Alex Müller and Georg Bednorz didn't want other scientists to find out about their research.
They weren't afraid that someone might steal their idea...
They just didn't want to be laughed at.
Back in the 1980s, Müller and Bednorz were searching for a new kind of superconductor. It's a material that transmits electricity without any resistance.
You've probably heard of superconductors before. They're a sort of "Holy Grail" in the scientific community.
For more than a century, folks have been looking for them...
The first was discovered back in 1911. A Dutch scientist named Heike Kamerlingh Onnes took some mercury and cooled it down to around negative 452 degrees Fahrenheit. That's just a few degrees above "absolute zero" – the coldest temperature possible.
Over the years, scientists found more elements that become superconductive at low temperatures. It turned out that more than two dozen metals work for this. These include aluminum, niobium, zinc, tin, and even lead.
But the true "Holy Grail" is a superconductor that works at higher temperatures.
After decades of searching, scientists hadn't found anything that worked above around negative 424 degrees Fahrenheit. That's far too cold to be practical for everyday use.
That's why Müller and Bednorz were afraid of being laughed at.
You see, Müller had a theory...
He spent years working with a kind of ceramic called strontium titanate. He had noticed that it acted strangely (or at least, not as expected) as it got colder.
Müller wanted to test this material and other ceramics to see if they might be high-temperature superconductors.
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A Big Breakthrough With a Bold Idea
After all, everyone knows that ceramics are poor conductors. You don't look at a ceramic coffee mug and think that it would make a great electric circuit.
But by the early 1980s, Müller was a respected scientist at IBM. He headed the company's physics department. And his boss had given him permission to work on any project that interested him.
In 1983, Müller reached out to Bednorz. Müller had helped him with his PhD thesis the year before. And Bednorz had the perfect skill set. He was an expert in crystallography and solid-state chemistry.
Together, Müller and Bednorz spent the next few years testing different types of ceramics.
He and Bednorz knew that the odds were stacked against them. Scientists had spent decades looking for ideal superconducting materials. But they hadn't succeeded.
Müller and Bednorz kept their research as quiet as possible. Again, they didn't want to draw attention to what sounded like a wild idea.
Nevertheless, a few folks found out. When asked how Müller's peers felt when they heard about his search, one physicist put it simply...
We thought he was crazy.
Then, in February 1986, it finally happened...
Müller and Bednorz's tests showed that lanthanum barium copper oxide became superconductive at around negative 397 degrees Fahrenheit.
That's still ridiculously cold. But compared with every other superconductor, it marked a huge breakthrough.
When Müller and Bednorz published their findings in June 1986, no one seemed to notice.
For months, there was no response from the scientific community. In late November, a team of researchers in Japan successfully replicated the experiment.
Then, the floodgates burst open...
In January 1987, researchers at the University of Alabama in Huntsville made another huge leap forward.
Using a material called yttrium barium copper oxide, they created a superconductor that worked at negative 294 degrees Fahrenheit.
The scientific community buzzed with excitement...
The annual meeting of the American Physical Society ("APS") in March 1987 became known as the "Woodstock of Physics." Müller and other scientists presented their breakthroughs to a massive audience at the New York City Hilton.
For months, superconductors became a huge topic. Newspapers ran stories about futuristic technologies just around the corner. Governments rushed to ramp up spending on superconductor research.
Müller and Bednorz became celebrities.
Just 19 months after submitting their paper, they were chosen for the 1987 Nobel Prize in physics. At the time, it marked the fastest decision in the history of the award.
Müller and Bednorz's story shows that some of the biggest successes start with a crazy, unproven idea.
We're Still Awaiting a Boom in Superconductors
Unfortunately, their discovery didn't trigger a new tech boom. As I said, superconductors have been disappointing when it comes to finding widespread applications for the technology.
Amid increasing energy demands and outdated grid infrastructure, it's more critical than ever to have stable power. And of course, we've also seen the deadly cost when old grid infrastructure fails.
Today, companies are still researching this arcane scientific frontier of superconductors. And our world is desperate for reliable energy – and more of it. So that long-awaited boom in superconductors could be closer than most folks might think.
Along with the big trend in energy demand, pay attention to what's going on with superconductors. They're a type of "Holy Grail," after all.
And remember that not every innovation you read about in the news is investible – or marketable – on Day 1. In fact, it often takes years for the biggest returns to be at hand.
Good investing,
Marc Chaikin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
-0.28%
8
16
6
S&P 500
-0.14%
139
230
131
Nasdaq
-0.08%
26
55
19
Small Caps
-0.45%
630
987
296
Bonds
+0.21%
Energy
+1.68%
6
11
5
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes remain all bullish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Discretionary
+2.75%
Information Technology
+2.65%
Communication
+2.64%
Energy
+2.51%
Utilities
+1.14%
Industrials
+1.05%
Financial
+0.41%
Real Estate
+0.41%
Materials
+0.13%
Consumer Staples
-1.2%
Health Care
-1.2%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Insurance Services
7
31
15
Over the past 6 months, the Insurance subsector (KIE) has underperformed the S&P 500 by -20.13%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Weak, with more Bearish than Bullish stocks. It is currently ranked #17 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 2 slots over the past week.
Indicative Stocks
AGO
Assured Guaranty Ltd
RYAN
Ryan Specialty Holdi
AJG
Arthur J. Gallagher
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
APA
+6.98%
STLD
+6.15%
OXY
+5.04%
HSY
+4.25%
BG
+4.22%
Losers
WBD
-6.22%
PSKY
-5.65%
EMR
-4.89%
PFG
-3.45%
ES
-3.21%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
FERG Ferguson Enterprises Inc.
Q4
$3.48
Beat by $0.47
* * * *
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