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Plenty of Opportunity for Diversification in This Market
When I began my career on Wall Street, investors still had a hangover from the "Nifty Fifty."
You've probably heard the term before. It refers to a group of blue-chip growth companies that dominated the market's performance during the late 1960s and early 1970s.
And in an eerie parallel with today, common wisdom was that it didn't matter what price you paid for these stocks.
At the peak of this frenzy, Polaroid traded for around 90 times earnings. Xerox, IBM, and General Electric traded at multiples of roughly 30 to 40 times earnings.
And when the bear market struck in 1973 and 1974, the Nifty Fifty didn't just underperform... Some lost 80% to 90% of their value.
For an investor, that's a horrible loss to bear.
But in hindsight, the Nifty Fifty ended up doing just fine.
In 1998, Jeremy Siegel – a professor at the Wharton School – performed a post-mortem on the Nifty Fifty. He calculated peak valuations in those stocks to see whether the valuations were justified.
And Siegel proved that had you held on, performance was roughly in line with the market.
More interesting, though, was that Siegel showed most Nifty Fifty valuations made sense. Yes, they were rich. But the companies ended up growing into those valuations.
And as Siegel showed, the sell-off was mostly a result of a change in investor confidence.
That's another benefit of diversification. It doesn't just protect your portfolio... It protects your psychology, too.
By spreading your investments across many stocks, you can weather inevitable storms without panicking at the worst possible moment.
Investors who bailed out during the crash missed the recovery that made those stocks worth holding after all.
Today, we obviously can't know where exactly the Magnificent Seven stocks will end up in the future...
But collectively, the Power Gauge sees upside ahead for the group. Five of them are "bullish" or better in our system. And the other two are in "neutral" territory.
Fortunately, the Power Gauge also sees plenty of big opportunities in other corners of the market. It currently rates 600 stocks "very bullish."
So when it comes to stocks with the potential for strong performance ahead, there are lots to choose from in this market.
The key is finding the right mix that lets you sleep at night while still benefiting from what's working in the market.
The Nifty Fifty taught us that great companies can survive terrible valuations, but only if you can survive the ride.
And diversification makes that ride bearable.
Good investing,
Joe Austin
Market View
Major Indexes and Notable Sectors
# Hld: Bullish Neutral Bearish
Dow 30
+0.54%
10
14
6
S&P 500
-0.12%
143
228
129
Nasdaq
-0.2%
28
54
18
Small Caps
+0.26%
637
982
294
Bonds
-0.25%
— According to the Chaikin Power Bar, Small Cap stocks and Large Cap stocks are Bullish. Major indexes remain all bullish.
* * * *
Sector Tracker
Sector movement over the last 5 days
Consumer Discretionary
+3.74%
Communication
+3.67%
Financial
+1.73%
Energy
+0.99%
Information Technology
+0.47%
Real Estate
+0.41%
Consumer Staples
+0.38%
Materials
+0.18%
Health Care
-0.09%
Industrials
-0.15%
Utilities
-0.32%
* * * *
Industry Focus
Mining Services
16
13
0
Over the past 6 months, the Mining subsector (XME) has outperformed the S&P 500 by +34.75%. Its Power Bar ratio, which measures future potential, is Very Strong, with more Bullish than Bearish stocks. It is currently ranked #2 of 21 subsectors and has moved down 1 slot over the past week.
Top Stocks
NEM
Newmont Corporation
CMC
Commercial Metals Co
CDE
Coeur Mining, Inc.
* * * *
Top Movers
Gainers
HOLX
+7.69%
WDAY
+7.25%
FOXA
+3.05%
FOX
+3.0%
AXP
+2.74%
Losers
BLDR
-5.63%
UBER
-4.99%
MHK
-4.01%
BG
-3.92%
AVGO
-3.84%
* * * *
Earnings Report
Earnings Surprises
GIS General Mills, Inc.
Q1
$0.86
Beat by $0.04
* * * *
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Chaikin Analytics forbids its writers from having a financial interest in any security they recommend to our subscribers. All employees of Chaikin Analytics, LLC (and affiliated companies) must wait 24 hours after an investment recommendation is published online – or 72 hours after a direct mail publication is sent – before acting on that recommendation.
This work is based on SEC filings, current events, interviews, corporate press releases, and what we've learned as financial journalists. It may contain errors, and you shouldn't make any investment decision based solely on what you read here. It's your money and your responsibility.
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