I Crunched 30 Nvidia Earnings Reports! Here's Why Markets Are Mispricing the Move One of the world’s biggest chipmakers, Nvidia (NVIDIA), is setting up to report earnings this week. Nvidia is the kind of stock traders love to chase. And I know they’ll chase whatever levels the stock throws at them. But I’m doing something different. I’ve been crunching the numbers on NVDA’s historical earnings volatility. And what I’ve discovered may just be one of the biggest mispricing moments in the stock’s history. Here’s what I found: - Average one-day move, last 30 earnings: 7.8%
- Average one-day move, last 10 earnings: 9.86%
- Average one-day move, last 5 earnings: 5.95%
- This week’s at-the-money straddle:pricing in a 7.6% move
So what does this all mean? On paper, this week's options market is pricing NVDA slightly cheap relative to the last 30 and last 10 earnings cycles — both of which historically exceed the 7.6% implied move. Only the last five earnings are below that level. Put it all together and the opportunity is clear: This is one of those rare setups where NVDA's implied move is not stretched. If anything, the options market may be underpricing the earnings volatility we've seen over its longer history. Look, when you see an options market pricing NVDA's move below its historical average — especially over the last 30 and 10 earnings — that's telling you something. It's telling you the market might not be pricing in the full potential volatility ahead. And for traders who understand how we leverage straddles and the other strategies we use here in Masters in Trading? Nvidia’s earnings setup is pure opportunity. This is exactly the kind of setup we look for in Earnings Advantage — where the implied move might be underpricing what actually happens when the numbers drop. Interested in learning more about my earnings strategy? Just click here. SGML: The Friday All Access Alert That Popped I highlighted Sigma Lithium Corp (SGML) at $6.20. Last week, I laid it all out and made the case for a surge in lithium names. Whenever this sector starts moving, all the biggest names like Albemarle (ALB) tend to move together. But only SGML was still cheap relative to the others names I was watching. And all that volatility in commodities and metals I’ve been telling you about was only going to send the stock higher from here. Well, it didn’t take long for the stock to soar. This morning? It opened around $9.00. That’s a ~45% move in just two trading days. With our latest All Access trade making some big moves, today I’ll walk you through: - How to manage a fast-moving trade
- When to take profits vs. let a winner run
- How to handle volatility in small-cap momentum names
- What to watch next for SGML into the afternoon flow
Join me for Masters in Trading LIVE at 11AM EST, where I’ll cover the NVDA earnings setup and show you exactly how we’re managing the SGML trade from Friday’s callout.  | Got a Question? | Be sure to join me live on YouTube and ask me anything. It’s a great way to connect directly with our trading community and make sure you’re getting the insights you need to help build a deeper understanding of the markets. Remember, the creative trader wins, |
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