| Sunday, November 16, 2025 Hello investors! Buckle up for what could be the most consequential earnings week of the quarter. Wednesday afternoon brings us Nvidia's results – the report that'll set the tone for the entire AI trade heading into year-end. But that's just the appetizer. We've also got Walmart navigating a CEO transition, a Bill Ackman livestream about government-sponsored enterprises (yes, really), Target and Lowe's showing us the state of the consumer, and enough Fed speakers to fill a conference hall. Let's break down the week that could redefine your portfolio. This Week's Make-or-Break Moment: Can Nvidia Keep the Dream Alive?Wednesday, 5:00 PM – This is it. Nvidia reports earnings and holds its conference call, and every investor on the planet will be hanging on every word about data center demand, Blackwell chip production, and AI infrastructure spending. Here's what makes this so critical: Nvidia has become the bellwether for the entire AI investment thesis. If they guide conservatively or hint at any demand softness, it won't just hit NVDA – it'll ripple through AMD, Taiwan Semi, Micron, Fabrinet, and dozens of other chip and infrastructure plays. The options market is already pricing in volatility, and for good reason. But here's the flip side: If Nvidia blows out numbers and raises guidance again, it could ignite another leg higher in tech. The question everyone's asking: Has enterprise AI spending reached escape velocity, or are we due for a breather as companies digest their massive infrastructure investments? Pro tip: Watch AMD and Taiwan Semi closely on Thursday morning. They have the highest trading correlation to Nvidia, and their price action often telegraphs how the market really feels about the report. Walmart's Leadership Transition: Can They Stick the Landing?Thursday, 8:00 AM – Walmart holds its earnings call, and this one comes with extra drama. CEO Doug McMillon just announced he's retiring next year, which means this call will be scrutinized for any signs of strategic shifts or succession planning details. But beyond the leadership storyline, Walmart's numbers tell us something crucial about the American consumer. Are people trading down to save money? Is grocery inflation still pinching wallets? And what's the health of the discretionary spending that drives higher margins? Here's a fun trading angle: Cal-Maine Foods and Bridgford Foods are Walmart suppliers that historically trade with high directional correlation to WMT on earnings day. If you're looking for leveraged exposure (or a hedge), those might be worth a look. The Retail Trifecta: Target, Lowe's, and Home Depot Tell AllThis week gives us a complete read-through on the consumer across three critical categories: Tuesday: Home Depot – How's the housing market really doing? DIY spending vs. professional contractor demand will tell the story. Wednesday: Target and Lowe's – Target shows us discretionary retail health, while Lowe's gives another data point on home improvement. Are consumers still investing in their homes, or has that pandemic-era trend finally exhausted itself? Wednesday: Williams-Sonoma – The high-end home goods play. If affluent consumers are pulling back here, that's a warning sign. Thursday: Ross Stores and Gap – Discount and mid-tier apparel. The consumer spending spectrum, all in one week. Between these reports and Walmart, we'll have the clearest picture yet of holiday shopping season expectations. Pay attention. Bill Ackman's Fannie/Freddie Livestream: What's He Cooking?Tuesday, 10:30 AM – In what might be the most unconventional corporate communication of the year, billionaire investor Bill Ackman will host a social media livestream to share a "proposed transaction" regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. This is wild. Ackman has been vocal about GSE reform for years, and now he's taking his pitch directly to the public. Is he proposing a privatization structure? A new capital framework? Whatever it is, if it gains traction with policymakers (and with Trump back in office, maybe it could?), these stocks could move violently. At minimum, this will be must-watch entertainment. At maximum, it could reshape the entire mortgage finance system. Set your alarms. Tuesday kicks off Microsoft Ignite, their flagship annual conference for IT professionals and developers. CEO Satya Nadella will present, and you can bet AI will dominate every conversation. Why does this matter for investors? Microsoft has been positioning itself as the enterprise AI platform of choice through Azure and Copilot. Any announcements about adoption rates, new enterprise customers, or AI monetization could move the stock significantly. This is Microsoft's chance to prove that AI isn't just a Google and Nvidia story. Crude Oil Expiration DramaThursday marks the expiration of WTI crude December futures. The document notes that "crude oil futures have seen extra volatility over the last year on contract expiration dates." Translation: If you're trading energy stocks or oil ETFs, Thursday could get weird. Contract rollovers can create exaggerated moves that don't reflect fundamental supply/demand dynamics. Don't mistake technical expiration volatility for a genuine market signal. Volatility Watch & Technical ExtremesOptions markets are flashing warning signals on several names: High volatility expected: - IREN (IREN) – crypto mining play with big option interest
- Bloom Energy (BE) – fuel cell volatility continues
Overbought territory (pullback candidates): - Mersana Therapeutics (MRSN)
- Forge Global (FRGE) – second week overbought
- Coca-Cola Consolidated (COKE)
Oversold territory (potential bounce plays): - Janus International (JBI)
- Cogent Communications (CCOI)
- Perrigo (PRGO)
Short squeeze watch: - Sphere (SPHR) – high short interest
- Sunrun (RUN) – high short interest
Those short interest plays are interesting. With market sentiment shifting, any positive news could trigger a squeeze. Key Economic Data & Fed ActivityWednesday, 2:00 PM: Fed minutes from the last meeting released. Markets will parse these for any dissent or forward guidance clues. Thursday, 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales report – another housing market data point to pair with Home Depot and Lowe's earnings. Friday: U.S. flash PMI reports – economists will be laser-focused on these leading indicators of economic activity. Fed speakers galore: - Monday, 9:00 AM: NY Fed's John Williams (Governance & Culture Reform Conference)
- Wednesday, 2:00 PM: NY Fed's John Williams (Making Missing Markets event)
- Thursday: Beth Hammack, Austan Goolsbee, and Anna Paulson all speaking
That's a lot of Fed communication in one week. Any deviation from the recent "data-dependent" messaging could move bond yields and equity valuations. Wicked: For Good – Box Office WildcardFriday brings the theatrical release of Universal's Wicked: For Good, which Fandango is calling "the biggest pre-seller for a PG film in their history." Why does this matter? Comcast owns Universal, and a massive theatrical success could validate their entertainment strategy and boost CMCSA sentiment. Plus, strong box office performance heading into the holidays could signal consumer willingness to spend on experiences – a positive read-through for the entire leisure sector. Investor Day BonanzaThis week is absolutely packed with corporate presentations. Some highlights: Monday: NetGear, National Vision, Yum China, Invitation Homes Tuesday: TransAlta, Aptiv, Upwork, AECOM Wednesday: Block, Moderna, Rockwell Automation, Deutsche Bank Space Summit (AST SpaceMobile, Rocket Lab, Blue Origin, Firefly Aerospace) Thursday: TE Connectivity, American Public Education, Insulet (BofA expects three-year targets) That Deutsche Bank Space Summit on Wednesday could be particularly interesting for the commercial space sector. Multiple companies presenting means direct comparisons and potential leadership shifts in investor sentiment. FDA Action & M&A VotesTuesday: FDA action date for Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals' plozasiran. Binary event, binary outcome. Monday: Verint shareholders vote on Thoma Bravo buyout Thursday: Guess? shareholders vote on Authentic Brands Group buyout These shareholder votes are typically formalities, but occasionally you get drama. The spreads on merger arb plays can tell you if there's real concern. Your Day-by-Day RoadmapMonday: - Notable earnings: Trip.com, XPeng, Aramark
- Investor Days: NetGear, National Vision, Yum China, Invitation Homes
- Verint shareholder vote on Thoma Bravo buyout
- Surmodics restraining order expires
- Dividend ex-dates: ConocoPhillips, L3Harris, Applied Materials, Microsoft
- 9:00 AM: NY Fed's John Williams speaks
- IPO lockup expirations: Hinge Health, Fast Track Group
- Quiet period expires: MapLight Therapeutics
Tuesday: - After close: Home Depot, Baidu, Amer Sports, Klarna
- All day: Microsoft Ignite conference begins (Satya Nadella presenting)
- All day: Saudi Crown Prince meets President Trump at White House
- Investor Days: TransAlta, Aptiv, Upwork, AECOM
- 10:30 AM: Bill Ackman livestream on Fannie/Freddie transaction proposal
- Oracle annual meeting
- FDA action date: Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
Wednesday: - After close: Nvidia, TJX Companies, Palo Alto Networks, Lowe's, Target, Jack in the Box, Williams-Sonoma
- Investor Days: Block, Moderna, Rockwell Automation
- All day: Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit
- 2:00 PM: Fed minutes released
- 2:00 PM: NY Fed's John Williams speaks
- 5:00 PM: Nvidia earnings call – THE EVENT OF THE WEEK
Thursday: - After close: Walmart, Intuit, Ross Stores, Warner Music Group, Gap, Bath & Body Works (double-digit move expected)
- WTI crude December futures expiration
- Investor Days: TE Connectivity, American Public Education, Insulet
- Guess? shareholder vote on Authentic Brands buyout
- 8:00 AM: Walmart earnings call (CEO succession in focus)
- 10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales report
- Fed speakers: Beth Hammack, Austan Goolsbee, Anna Paulson
Friday: - After close: BJ's Wholesale Club
- All day: U.S. flash PMI reports (major economic focus)
- All day: Wicked: For Good theatrical release
The Bottom LineThis is the week where narratives get made or broken. Nvidia either validates the AI supercycle or injects doubt. Walmart either shows consumer resilience or cracks in spending. Ackman either launches a serious GSE reform movement or provides meme-worthy entertainment. My take? Position carefully going into Wednesday afternoon. The Nvidia report has become so consequential that it could dictate market direction for weeks. If you're heavily exposed to semiconductors or AI infrastructure, consider your risk management. If you're underexposed, Wednesday could be your buying opportunity – or your validation that you were right to wait. What's your Nvidia prediction – blowout quarter that extends the rally, or the beginning of a digestion period for AI stocks? And are you tuning into Ackman's Fannie/Freddie livestream? Hit reply with your thoughts, and I'll share the best takes next week. 🔴 URGENT: BLACK FRIDAY ENDS AT MIDNIGHT! 🔴 Trend Rider - Your 80% Accuracy Mount Up System Don't chase moves. Catch them at the perfect time! LAST CALL: $197 LIFETIME (Regular $497) ✓ 5-criteria trigger = only high-probability setups ✓ 80% accuracy on stocks, crypto, forex, gold ✓ IB Zones + EMA warnings + cool down filter ✓ Automatic risk management built in ✓ FULL PACKAGE: Indicator, Power Index, masterclass, Telegram, lifetime updates ⏳ DEAL EXPIRES IN HOURS - $300 OFF! 👉 [SECURE YOUR SPOT NOW - $197] Risk-free 30 days | Install in 2 minutes | Never miss the Mount Up signal again Until then, stay sharp and happy investing! FindBetterTrades P.S. – Those dividend ex-dates on Monday include Microsoft and Applied Materials. And if you're trading around the Nvidia call, remember that the real market reaction often doesn't fully play out until Thursday morning when institutions have had time to digest the results. Patience can pay off. | 
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