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Today's Featured Content Battle of the Black Friday Stocks: Amazon vs. Walmart vs. TargetWritten by Nathan Reiff. Published 11/17/2025. 
Key Points - U.S. consumers are projected to spend more than $1 trillion on holiday shopping for the first time ever.
- Major retailers like Amazon, Walmart, and Target are poised to benefit from this trend.
- Walmart's omnichannel approach may give it an advantage on Black Friday, but Amazon's unparalleled logistics network and competitive pricing make it an overall holiday retail winner.
As Black Friday's reach extends to Small Business Saturday, Cyber Monday and, in some cases, the entire month of November, retail sales have expanded accordingly. The National Retail Federation estimates that the 2025 winter holidays (November through December) will see more than $1 trillion in U.S. retail sales for the first time—an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% over 2024. Despite headwinds from waning consumer confidence and inflation, Black Friday remains a central driver of holiday-season sales. Street Ideas highlights early activity in small-cap names before they show up on mainstream radars. Stay ahead of the noise with alerts focused on real momentum, not hype. Get Early Access — Join Free Three core retailers positioned to benefit from the post-Thanksgiving spending surge are Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT), and Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT). How will these retail giants fare in 2025, and which is likely to come out on top? Amazon: The Online Juggernaut In the U.S., Amazon is the undisputed leader in online retail. Although the e-commerce giant has expanded into cloud, advertising and other services in recent years, its retail business remains substantial. The company's Black Friday deals typically run nearly two weeks—from November 20 to December 1—and cover all categories, with electronics, toys and beauty traditionally among the top sellers. In 2024, Amazon hosted its most successful Black Friday sales event to date. It also consistently posts some of the lowest online prices among major U.S. retailers—a result of its unmatched selection and logistics advantages, which allow it to outcompete rivals on price and availability. The company is also preparing to use its vast distribution network to disrupt the grocery space, one of the last categories where brick-and-mortar stores have held an edge. Walmart: The Omnichannel King Originally a traditional retailer, Walmart has successfully pivoted to an omnichannel model that blends in-store and online experiences. That strategy has helped produce some of its best recent earnings. Walmart has also attracted some third-party sellers away from Amazon, making its e-commerce marketplace an increasingly important growth driver. Walmart's strong fulfillment network lets it price competitively and manage inventory across channels, while its loyal customer base supports consistent sales performance. Target: The Challenger Target is a household name but smaller than Amazon and Walmart, so it has carved out a niche to remain competitive during Black Friday. The company emphasizes curation—maintaining a narrower third-party marketplace and a more selective assortment of brands—which helps position Target as a destination for value on quality items. Its store pickup program, which gained popularity during the pandemic, continues to drive convenient omnichannel shopping. Target has faced headwinds in recent quarters, including a widespread boycott after rolling back parts of its DEI program. The Black Friday period could be a chance for Target to regain momentum or, alternatively, fall further behind its larger competitors. Key Metrics Comparison On a year-to-date basis, Walmart has the most momentum heading into Black Friday: WMT shares are up about 14% this year, compared with gains of about 8% for AMZN and a decline of roughly 34% for TGT. Looking at holiday revenue estimates, Amazon forecasts fourth-quarter revenues between $206 billion and $213 billion; the other two companies had not published holiday revenue forecasts as of this writing. Amazon's online store sales in the latest quarter reached $67.4 billion, a 10% year-over-year increase and roughly 63% of total sales for the period. Walmart's latest annual report showed $121 billion in online sales—just under 18% of total revenue. Target does not provide the same breakdown, though its digital comparable sales growth has recently outpaced overall sales growth. So, Who Wins Black Friday 2025? Given its broad omnichannel reach, loyal customer base and aggressive pricing, Walmart looks well positioned to dominate the Black Friday retail race this year. Investors looking to capitalize on that performance may see an opportunity ahead of Walmart's earnings release, expected on November 20, which will reflect the Black Friday period. That said, in the broader retail landscape Amazon could still emerge as the overall leader. Its massive product selection, consistently low prices and international footprint give it advantages that extend beyond U.S. Black Friday activity. Amazon also benefits from the tailwinds of AWS and its advertising business, which support the company even when retail growth moderates. Outside the United States, Black Friday matters less on its own, but the entire holiday season matters a great deal—another area where Amazon's global reach provides an edge.
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