| Nvidia's Big Moment, Retail Earnings Blitz & Fed Minutes Drop Happy Monday! Last week was a head-fake. Stocks jumped Monday on shutdown-ending hopes, then gave it all back by Thursday when the government actually reopened. Classic buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news. The S&P 500 ended the week flat. Here's what changed: several Fed members came out against a December rate cut, dropping the odds from 66% to 43% in just a week. Now it's basically a coin flip whether we get another cut this year. This week is massive. Nvidia — Goldman Sachs calls it "the most important stock on Earth" — reports Wednesday. Plus, we're getting a retail earnings parade featuring Walmart, Target, Home Depot, and Lowe's. The Fed minutes drop Wednesday too. The Big PictureThe government reopened, but it's unclear if we'll ever get the delayed October jobs and inflation data. The White House said they might never release it. So we're moving forward with blind spots in the economic picture. This week's focus: Can retailers prove the consumer is still spending? And will Nvidia justify its $3+ trillion valuation? Key Events to WatchFed Minutes (Wednesday 2:00 PM): The October meeting had two dissenting votes — one for a bigger cut, one for no cut at all. A divided Fed means more uncertainty about the rate path. Housing Starts (Wednesday): Expected at 1.33 million, slightly up from September. Homebuilder sentiment remains weak (readings below 50). Existing Home Sales (Thursday): Expected at 4.06 million. Median home price was $415,200 in September, up 2.1% year-over-year. PMI Data (Friday): Manufacturing expected at 52, Services at 54.5. Both slightly down from October. Your Day-by-Day BreakdownMonday, November 17Light day. XPeng and Trip.com report — both China plays giving us reads on consumer spending and EV demand overseas. Also: Several investor days happening, including NetGear, National Vision, and Yum China. Tuesday, November 18 — Home Depot Kicks Off Retail WeekHOME DEPOT — The home improvement giant reports. With housing market sentiment still weak and mortgage rates elevated, this will tell us if consumers are still willing to spend on home projects or if they're tightening up. Home Depot is a bellwether for consumer discretionary spending and housing health. BAIDU — China's search giant reports. Another read on the Chinese economy. KLARNA — The buy-now-pay-later company reports. This will show if consumers are still leaning on financing for purchases or pulling back. Also: Medtronic, Amer Sports, PDD Holdings Big event: Microsoft Ignite conference begins — updates on cloud, AI, and enterprise solutions. CEO Satya Nadella presents. Another big event: Bill Ackman hosts a livestream at 10:30 AM on a proposed transaction regarding Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Could move markets. Wednesday, November 19 — The Day That Matters MostThis is it. The biggest day of the week, maybe the month. NVIDIA — The AI chip king reports after the close. Analysts will be watching data center demand, AI infrastructure spending, and guidance. Nvidia is the most valuable company in the world and the bellwether for the entire AI trade. If this report disappoints, it could drag down the entire market. If it exceeds expectations, we could see a monster rally. AMD and Taiwan Semi typically trade in correlation with Nvidia after earnings. TARGET — Expected to be a key read on the middle-class consumer. Have they pulled back spending, or are they still buying? This will set the tone for holiday shopping expectations. LOWE'S — The other home improvement giant. Paired with Home Depot, this will give a full picture of housing-related consumer spending. TJX COMPANIES — The discount retailer (TJ Maxx, Marshalls) reports. Are consumers trading down to save money? PALO ALTO NETWORKS — Cybersecurity demand check. Are companies still spending on security, or are budgets getting tighter? WILLIAMS-SONOMA — High-end home goods. Another housing market indicator. Also reporting: Viking Holdings, Jack in the Box At 2:00 PM, the Fed minutes drop. Everyone will be looking for clues about the December rate decision and any hints about the 2026 path. At 5:00 PM, Nvidia's earnings call begins. This will be the most-watched call of the quarter. Thursday, November 20 — Walmart's New Era BeginsWALMART — The retail behemoth reports. But there's a twist: longtime CEO Doug McMillon just announced he's stepping down next year. The call will be heavily scrutinized for succession planning, strategy shifts, and consumer spending trends. Walmart is the ultimate consumer bellwether. If they're seeing weakness, it's real. Earnings call is at 8:00 AM. INTUIT — The TurboTax and QuickBooks company reports. Small business health indicator. ROSS STORES — Another discount retailer. Are consumers hunting for deals? GAP — Apparel spending check. Mall traffic and fashion demand will be key. Also reporting: Warner Music Group, Bath & Body Works At 10:00 AM, existing home sales data drops. Expected at 4.06 million homes sold. Fedspeak: Multiple Fed officials speaking today, including Austan Goolsbee. Markets will be listening for any hints on December. Also: WTI crude December futures expire. Could see extra volatility in oil. Friday, November 21BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB — The membership warehouse club reports. Another consumer spending data point. Flash PMI reports drop — economists will be watching closely for any signs of manufacturing or services weakness. Also: Universal Pictures' Wicked: For Good opens. Fandango says it's the biggest pre-seller for a PG film in their history. Entertainment spending indicator. The Stocks Everyone's WatchingNvidia: The Most Important Earnings Report $3+ trillion valuation. The entire AI trade hinges on this report. Data center demand, guidance, and commentary on AI infrastructure spending will determine whether this rally continues or stalls. AMD and Taiwan Semi will move with it. Walmart: The Consumer Bellwether If Walmart is seeing weakness, the consumer is in trouble. But if they're still strong, it confirms spending is holding up into the holidays. The CEO transition adds extra intrigue. This call will set the tone for retail heading into year-end. Target: The Middle-Class Check Target caters to middle-income shoppers. This report will tell us if that demographic is still spending or pulling back. If they're weak, holiday sales projections could take a hit. Home Depot & Lowe's: The Housing Pair Housing sentiment is terrible, mortgage rates are high, and home sales are sluggish. But are people still fixing up their homes? These two reports will answer that question. TJX & Ross: The Trade-Down Indicator If discount retailers are crushing it, that means consumers are still spending but hunting for deals. That's a mixed signal — spending is there, but budget-conscious. What Else Is HappeningDelayed Data Mystery: The White House said the October jobs report and CPI might never be released. That's wild. The Fed is making decisions without key data. Fed Division: The October meeting had two dissenting votes in opposite directions. That's rare and signals uncertainty within the Fed itself. Rate Cut Odds Plunge: From 66% to 43% in a week. December is now a toss-up. Saudi Meeting: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with President Trump on Tuesday. Could impact oil and geopolitics. The Bottom LineThis week is all about two things: Nvidia and the consumer. If Nvidia delivers and shows AI spending is still accelerating, the market rallies. If they disappoint or guide down, it's a problem for the entire tech sector. If retailers — especially Walmart and Target — show consumers are still spending, the holiday outlook stays intact. If they're weak, we're heading into a tough end of year. The Fed minutes on Wednesday will add context to the rate path, but honestly, Nvidia's report at 5:00 PM that same day will matter more to markets in the short term. Here's the setup: strong earnings season so far, but valuations are stretched, the Fed is divided, and the consumer is under pressure. This week's reports will either confirm the bull case or expose the cracks. Watch Nvidia Wednesday night. That one report could move the entire market. 🔥 BLACK FRIDAY BLOWOUT - ALL PRODUCTS! 🔥 The Ultimate Trading Toolkit - Massive Discounts! 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