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A "Sinking" Feeling About This 11% Yielder

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FLNG: Will Its 11% Yield Sink?

Marc Lichtenfeld, Chief Income Strategist, The Oxford Club

Marc Lichtenfeld

A year ago, I looked at the dividend safety of natural gas shipper Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG). At the time, it had a whopping 13% yield. However, falling free cash flow and a payout ratio that exceeded 100% meant the stock received an "F" rating.

Fortunately for shareholders, the quarterly dividend has remained intact at $0.75 per share, giving the stock a current yield of more than 11%.

But can that $0.75 dividend stay afloat?

When I reviewed the stock last year, one problem was that free cash flow was projected to fall to $152 million in 2025 from $183 million the previous year. The actual numbers in 2025 were even worse than expected.

Flex LNG generated just $141 million in free cash flow in 2025 while paying out $162 million in dividends. That came out to a payout ratio of 115%. In other words, for every $1 of free cash flow it made, the company paid out $1.15.

Think of it like this: If you make $100,000 a year and spend $115,000, that extra $15,000 has to come from somewhere. You either have to take it out of savings or borrow it.

The same thing goes for companies. When a company's amount paid in dividends exceeds its free cash flow by that much, it's a big concern.

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This year, free cash flow is forecast to drop further to $131 million. Flex LNG is projected to pay shareholders $159 million in dividends, increasing the payout ratio even more to 121%.

Chart: Flex LNG (NYSE: FLNG)
View larger image
 

Falling free cash flow and a too-high payout ratio mean the dividend is even less safe than it was a year ago.

Flex LNG shareholders should not be surprised if the dividend is reduced in the next year.

Dividend Safety Rating: F

Dividend Grade Guide
 

You've sent in a number of great Safety Net requests recently, so I'm going to let you vote to decide which stock I evaluate next week. Here are your options - all three are business development companies, which are notorious for their high yields:

  • Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (NYSE: BXSL), a 12.7% yielder that previously earned an "A" grade from the Safety Net model
  • Cion Investment (NYSE: CION), a monthly dividend payer with a 13.9% yield
  • Fidus Investment (Nasdaq: FDUS), which invests in smaller companies and yields 9.3% based on the regular dividend and over 11% if you include the special dividend.

Cast your vote by clicking one of the buttons below, and be sure to check back next week to see if I wrote about your stock.

Blackstone Secured Lending Fund (NYSE: BXSL)
Cion Investment (NYSE: CION)
Fidus Investment (Nasdaq: FDUS)

Good investing,

Marc

Access a Free List of Marc Lichtenfeld's Favorite Dividend Stocks. Click here.

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