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More Reading from MarketBeat Can RSG Stock Turn Guidance Into Gains in 2026?Submitted by Chris Markoch. Publication Date: 2/20/2026. 
Key Points - Republic Services posted an EPS beat but issued modest 2026 guidance, reinforcing its role as a steady, contract-driven business rather than a high-growth story.
- Ongoing acquisitions and sector consolidation support long-term positioning, though recent CapEx has pressured cash flow and buyback potential.
- As investors rotate toward defensive names, RSG shareholders could benefit from stable demand, dividends, and predictable revenue streams.
- Special Report: [Sponsorship-Ad-6-Format3]
Republic Services Inc. (NYSE: RSG) delivered a mixed fourth-quarter earnings report on Feb. 17. Earnings per share (EPS) of $1.76 beat the forecasted $1.62 and rose 8% year-over-year (YOY). Revenue of $4.14 billion missed the $4.21 billion estimate by roughly 1.6%, but was about 2.2% higher YOY. More important was the company's forward guidance. Republic Services guided full-year 2026 revenue to a range of $17.05 billion to $17.15 billion; the midpoint implies roughly a 3% YOY increase. Guidance for full-year 2026 EPS was set between $7.20 and $7.28, with the midpoint representing about a 3% increase from the $7.02 delivered this year. Republic Services also expects approximately $1 billion in acquisitions in 2026, following $1.1 billion of capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2025—a sign of ongoing consolidation in the sector. That combination helps explain the lukewarm-to-bearish price action in RSG stock after the report. The company showed softer operating cash flow following last year's heavy CapEx, which could pressure free cash flow in the coming year and limit share buybacks. Despite a roughly 2.2% negative total return over the past 12 months, the stock is showing early signs of a bullish reversal. The question for investors is whether there's enough upside to make RSG a must-own in 2026. The Chart Looks Favorable Initially the stock fell about 0.8% on the report, but by midday Feb. 18 it was down roughly 5%, pushing it below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA). With the relative strength index (RSI) in the low 40s, selling pressure may not yet be exhausted. 
That said, RSG stock has shown signs of reversing a bearish trend that began in June 2025. It's important that the stock hold the current level around $210; if it does, the pattern remains intact and the next technical target would be the 200-day SMA near $228, which aligns with analysts' consensus targets and the highs from late July. Macroeconomic and Sector Tailwinds Are In Place Republic Services stands to benefit from two trends: a shift toward defensive positioning amid doubts about the sustainability of AI-driven growth, and the inherently defensive nature of waste management—an essential service with revenues often tied to long-term contracts. Some analysts will point to weakness in construction that has weighed on volumes. However, there are signs economic activity may be picking up as provisions from the administration's "One Big Beautiful Bill" begin to take effect and as promised reshoring spending tied to tariff negotiations starts to flow. Republic Services effectively operates in a duopoly with Waste Management Inc. (NYSE: WM). Over the last three years, RSG has delivered an average total return of 24.5%, outpacing WM's 19.6% over the same period. Several ETFs hold both stocks, and institutional interest is solid. That said, institutional buying has outpaced selling without being aggressively bullish, which may reflect broader investor caution outside the tech sector. Notably, the spread between buying and selling volume widened in the last quarter. Analyzing the Upside for RSG Stock Currently, analysts assign RSG about 15% upside, with a consensus price target near $245. If the stock returns roughly 16–17%, it would outpace many analysts' S&P 500 forecasts (around 12.5%) and shift Republic Services from market laggard to market leader. That growth would be coupled with a modest but reliable dividend, which has increased by high single digits over the past two years. Investors are paying a modest premium as of Feb. 18. The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of about 31.7x is not high relative to its own history but is above the sector average and the S&P 500.
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