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Nebius' AI Infrastructure Rally Is Back—And the Numbers Explain Why
Reported by Ryan Hasson. First Published: 2/20/2026.
Key Points
- Nebius shares have gained more than 20% over the prior week as accelerating demand and raised contracted power guidance boosted investor confidence.
- Management reaffirmed its ambitious $7 to $9 billion ARR target for 2026, highlighting strong pricing power and long-term customer commitments.
- With analysts lifting price targets and the stock reclaiming $100, NBIS is approaching a key resistance level that could trigger a fresh breakout.
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Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) has quickly emerged as one of the market's standout performers in AI infrastructure. Over the past week, shares have surged more than 21%, driven by confident forward guidance, a wave of bullish analyst upgrades and BlackRock's significant stake in the company.
Just two weeks ago, the stock was testing a major support level and appeared to be losing momentum. Now, following its latest earnings report, Nebius is pressing up against key resistance and flirting with a potential breakout.
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With improving fundamentals and strengthening technicals, the company is increasingly positioning itself as a potential leader in the AI infrastructure space.
Shares Climb After Q4 Results
Nebius reported fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 12. At first glance, the numbers looked mixed.
Revenue was $227.7 million, below estimates of $246 million, but still represented 547% year-over-year growth and 55% sequential growth. Gross margin held at 70% versus 71% in the prior quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $15 million versus expectations of $40.4 million, although the adjusted EBITDA margin for the core business improved to 24% from 19% in Q3. EPS was a loss of $0.69, missing consensus of a $0.42 loss.
The headline revenue miss initially raised eyebrows, but context matters.
Management explained that most of the new capacity came online in late November and therefore contributed meaningfully only to December revenue. As a result, quarterly revenue lagged expectations, while forward indicators painted a stronger picture.
Active power reached 170 MW, well above the previously guided 100 MW. Year-end annual recurring revenue climbed to $1.25 billion, up 127% quarter over quarter. More importantly, management reiterated an ambitious year-end 2026 ARR target of $7 billion to $9 billion, signaling continued confidence in demand.
Revenue guidance for 2026 was set at $3.0 billion to $3.4 billion, which management described as prudent. The company also reiterated a year-end 2026 connected-power target of 800 MW to 1 GW and raised its contracted-power guidance from more than 2.5 GW to over 3 GW.
AI Demand Accelerating, Not Slowing
During the earnings call, management emphasized that demand trends remain robust.
Enterprise and AI-native customers continue to outpace available supply, allowing Nebius to sell future capacity well in advance. The company said it saw nearly twice as many transactions for contracts longer than 12 months in Q4 compared with Q3, and average selling prices increased by more than 50%.
Management also reported that the company has effectively sold out of Hoppers, with renewal contracts extending 12 months or longer at improved pricing. That combination of longer-term commitments and rising prices points to strengthening pricing power rather than weakening demand.
Analysts Turn More Bullish
On Feb. 18, Compass Point initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $150 price target, implying roughly 54% upside at the time. A day earlier, BWS Financial reiterated its Buy rating and $130 price target, noting meaningful upside potential.
Those calls add to an improving analyst backdrop. Both firms emphasized that the Q4 "misses" were timing-related rather than demand-related, with power and ARR targets driving the 2026 thesis.
If the company continues converting contracted power into connected power on schedule, the upside case becomes easier for analysts to defend.
Nebius now carries 11 analyst ratings, a consensus Moderate Buy, and an average price target of $143.33 — still implying substantial upside despite the stock's roughly 140% gain over the past year.
Impressive Relative Strength and Breakout Potential
While many software and AI-related names have struggled recently, Nebius has bucked the trend. Shares are up roughly 28% year to date and recently reclaimed the $100 level.
If the stock can hold above $100 and build support, the next key level to watch is the $110 resistance zone. A sustained move above that area could trigger a breakout and mark the start of another leg higher within its broader uptrend.
Draganfly's CEO Says Drones Are Becoming Intelligence Platforms—Not Just Hardware
Reported by Bridget Bennett. First Published: 2/19/2026.
Key Points
- Draganfly is positioning drones as intelligence platforms, using real-world data and AI to move beyond airframes.
- Defense demand and “made-here” procurement trends are accelerating adoption and could tighten supply across North America.
- AFSOC-linked training and FPV work underscores a shift toward recurring services and operational integration, not just unit sales.
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The drone industry's latest rally has been driven by a familiar mix: geopolitical urgency, rapid AI adoption, and a fast-moving shift toward automation.
In a recent MarketBeat conversation, CEO Cameron Chell explained why Draganfly Inc. (NASDAQ: DPRO) expects the next chapter for drones to be defined less by airframes and more by the data, intelligence and operational capabilities built around them.
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Draganfly recently traded in the mid-$7 range, and Wall Street remains optimistic about its prospects as a small-cap company, with MarketBeat's consensus target near $16.75.
From "Drone Makers" to Intelligence Platforms
Asked what's driving investment across the sector, Chell framed drones as an evolution story—similar to the early internet era, when first movers outgrew their original labels. His central point: the "endgame" may not be a hardware category at all.
In his view, drones are uniquely positioned to become dominant real-world data collectors—capturing everything from imaging and environmental monitoring to specialized sensing that can feed AI systems. That combination, he argued, will separate a handful of eventual leaders from the pack: companies that move beyond manufacturing to become information-and-intelligence businesses.
The Pentagon's "Drone Dominance" Demand Signal
Defense has become the sector's most visible catalyst, and Chell pointed to the scale of near-term demand as evidence that adoption is still early despite the sector's sharp stock moves.
A major headline backing that narrative: in December 2025, the Pentagon announced an initiative to deliver 300,000 small drones over the next several years and bolster domestic production capacity—an effort publicly described as "drone dominance."
The takeaway is straightforward: even one large program can strain North American supply, and the broader re-arming cycle extends beyond a single budget line. In Chell's view, the competitive moat isn't just parts availability—it's the ability to build, certify, scale, and support systems for mission-critical use.
Why "Made Here" Is Becoming a Requirement, Not a Preference
Another theme from the interview: drones are being "re-regionalized." Countries increasingly want domestic production for cost control and supply-chain security. Chell said Draganfly already operates manufacturing facilities in both the United States and Canada and expects that multi-sovereign model to expand as nations prioritize domestic control.
That push aligns with broader policy trends: restrictions on foreign-made drone technology have intensified, and national-security scrutiny is rising.
Canada's Defense Push: What Chell Says Is at Stake
Chell also highlighted a newly announced Canadian “Defense Industrial Strategy”, calling it another example of global re-militarization and a shift toward sovereign manufacturing. Some figures he discussed were presented as management commentary rather than independently confirmed allocations, but the strategic direction is clear: Canada—like many allies—is moving toward deeper domestic capability and faster procurement cycles.
A Concrete Win: Training + FPV Drones for U.S. Air Force Special Operations
One of the most actionable parts of the conversation focused on Draganfly's recent selection, alongside partner DelMar Aerospace, to provide Flex FPV drones and training to units within U.S. Air Force Special Operations Command (AFSOC).
The structure matters: this isn't framed as a simple hardware sale but as capability delivery—platform plus instruction—conducted at DelMar's Camp Pendleton UAS training facility.
Chell described Draganfly's battlefield experience—particularly lessons learned from Ukraine—as a differentiator for training and product iteration. For investors, that matters because it expands the addressable opportunity beyond unit sales into services, recurring training cohorts, and operational integration.
Beyond Defense: Practical Commercial Use Cases
While defense is driving headlines, Chell emphasized momentum in public safety and industrial markets where ROI is easier to quantify. Examples include:
- robotic inspections and maintenance for wind turbines,
- drones supporting cell-tower restoration and emergency response,
- systems deployed on power lines for monitoring and data collection.
The common thread: drones are replacing slow, risky, and expensive workflows that once required crews, harnesses, helicopters, or complex logistics.
The Investor Question: Has the Run Already Happened?
Draganfly's run is a reminder of how quickly sentiment can shift in emerging categories—especially when government budgets and policy tailwinds intersect with AI narratives.
Chell argued that the industry is still at the "beginning of the beginning": major militaries have spent decades experimenting with drones, but the first truly large and structured procurement waves are only now becoming visible at scale.
How this unfolds will depend on execution—manufacturing ramp, reliability, regulatory compliance, and the ability to win repeat business in a crowded field.
Still, the combination of a large U.S. demand signal, nationalized supply-chain trends, and concrete contract wins helps explain why analysts remain constructive.
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