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Further Reading from MarketBeat Media
ASML Falls Post-Earnings, Chip-Making Expansion Anchors OutlookAuthored by Leo Miller. Article Published: 4/16/2026. 
Key Points
- After shares of ASML boomed in 2025 and continued gaining in 2026, markets sold off after the company's latest earnings report.
- However, ASML significantly raised its full-year guidance, providing a strong positive indicator going forward.
- Rising chip-making capacity is a key tailwind, while ASML's Chinese business is a pressure point.
- Special Report: Elon’s “Hidden” Company
Semiconductor manufacturing equipment maker ASML Holding (NASDAQ: ASML) surged in 2025 and has continued to climb. Shares returned nearly 56% last year, and 2026 has seen more of the same. The stock is up more than 35% year-to-date, despite falling 2.4% after ASML's latest earnings report. Given the stock's recent gains, encouraging results, and its long-term outlook, ASML remains constructive. Here's what investors need to know. ASML Earnings: Solid Beats, Mixed Guidance
Liberation Day wiped over $2 trillion from markets in a single day. Then a 90-day tariff pause added $4 trillion back to the S&P 500. Trump's AI initiatives sent Palantir up over 140%. Trader Larry Benedict says all of that was just the warm-up.
Benedict is calling what comes next 'Project 2026' - a move he believes could send billions, potentially trillions, into overlooked corners of the market. He's identified one ticker sitting at the center of it all, and he's revealing the name today at no cost. Larry is calling it "Project 2026."
In Q1 2026, the Dutch advanced lithography maker reported sales up 13% year over year (YOY) to €8.77 billion (about $10.35 billion), slightly above analyst estimates of $10.24 billion. The company also beat on the bottom line, posting diluted earnings per share of €7.15 (about $8.44), a 19% YOY increase that exceeded estimates of €7.68 per share. Guidance for Q2 was lighter than expected. At the midpoint, ASML forecasts revenue of €8.7 billion (about $10.27 billion), while analysts were looking for roughly €9.08 billion (about $10.72 billion). Quarterly results can be lumpy for ASML because its machines are extremely expensive. For example, the company’s most advanced high-NA extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography system costs around $400 million. A single machine more or less in a quarter can swing revenue meaningfully, so short-term misses aren’t always indicative of longer-term trends. That’s why annual guidance is often a fairer benchmark. On that front, ASML impressed: midpoint full-year 2026 sales were raised to €38 billion (about $44.84 billion), up from the prior midpoint of €36.5 billion (about $43.07 billion) and above consensus of €37.75 billion (about $44.55 billion). Still, the full-year beat was modest and Q2 guidance disappointed, which likely contributed to the post-earnings pullback as investors had already priced in strong results. Looking ahead, two key dynamics to watch are ASML's constrained ability to convert demand into sales and developments in China. Manufacturing Buildouts Support Strong Multi-Year DemandASML’s ability to convert demand into sales is currently constrained not by lack of customer interest but by customers' limited capacity to install equipment. Many chipmakers lack the clean-room space required for ASML’s machines, and building new fabs or expanding existing facilities can take years. While expansions are planned, they will take time to come online. Notably, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) expects to spend roughly $54 billion on capital expenditures (CapEx) in 2026, a 32% increase versus 2025. Micron Technology (NASDAQ: MU) forecasts CapEx of $25 billion in 2026, an 81% rise year over year, with plans to increase further in 2027. Samsung’s 2026 CapEx projection is about $28 billion, and SK Hynix projects $24.5 billion. Many of these expansion projects aren't expected to be operational until 2027 or 2028. So demand for ASML’s systems is strong, but sales are limited until customers expand their facilities — a dynamic that supports a favorable long-term outlook for the company. China Sales Drop, MATCH Act LoomsSales to China fell roughly 23% YOY, dropping to about 19% of total revenue. Much of the decline reflects normalization after a 2025 pull-forward, when Chinese customers accelerated purchases ahead of export controls. Still, further weakness is possible due to proposed legislation. A bipartisan group in Congress recently introduced the Multilateral Alignment of Technology Controls on Hardware (MATCH) Act, which would effectively ban sales of deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines to China. DUV systems account for the bulk of ASML’s Chinese sales, since the company has not sold EUV systems there. A DUV ban would therefore materially affect ASML’s ability to sell into China. ASML says its 2026 guidance range “accommodates potential outcomes of ongoing discussions around export control.” ASML: Chip Equipment Stalwart Up Against High ExpectationsASML remains in a strong strategic position, backed by robust multi-year demand. The China-related political risk is meaningful, but the fate of the MATCH Act is still uncertain. As of mid-April 2026, ASML appears fairly valued, and after the earnings release analysts at major investment banks maintained their Buy ratings. |
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