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Monday's Bonus News
Apple's Foldable iPhone Foray: A Real Needle Mover or Hype Train?Submitted by Leo Miller. Posted: 4/15/2026. 
Key Points
- After seeing record-breaking demand for the iPhone 17 lineup, Apple is gearing up to release its first foldable phone
- Analysts expect Apple to take significant foldable market share during 2026
- However, the size of the foldable market raises questions about how impactful this endeavor could be
- Special Report: Elon Musk already made me a “wealthy man”
Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) hit it out of the park with its iPhone 17 lineup. The new family of flagship devices helped the company post its highest iPhone sales ever in Q4 2025 and record its highest total revenue. Despite concerns that Apple lacks a clear artificial intelligence (AI) strategy, excitement around the iPhone 17 pushed the stock to all-time highs in December 2025. Now the Magnificent Seven company is moving into a high-tech market it has long been absent from: foldable phones.
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According to Bloomberg Technology, Apple is set to debut its first foldable phone, reportedly called the “iPhone Ultra,” in September 2026. (There are also reports that manufacturing issues could delay the device’s release.) For investors, the key question is whether the iPhone Ultra can move the needle for the tech stock or whether it will be just a high-end novelty. Here’s what the data suggests. Apple Projected to Reaccelerate Foldable Market Growth to 30%Foldable phones got off to a fast start in their early years. Research firm Omdia notes the first foldables appeared in 2019, and by 2021 annual shipments had jumped 309% year over year to 9 million units. The market is still growing, but that pace has slowed considerably. IDC estimates foldable sales reached about 20.6 million units in 2025, or roughly 10% growth year over year. That equates to an approximate 23% compound annual growth rate from 2021 to 2025. While far below the initial surge, this is notable given that overall smartphone shipments declined substantially from 2021 to 2025; overall shipments rose just 2% year over year in 2025, according to Omdia. Apple’s entry into foldables is expected to reaccelerate growth. IDC forecasts foldable shipments will increase 30% in 2026 and projects Apple will capture a large share of that market—about 22% of shipments and 34% of sales value. IDC estimates the iPhone Ultra’s average selling price near $2,400, roughly double the $1,199 base price of the iPhone 17 Pro Max (lowest storage version). Analysts are generally optimistic about Apple gaining traction in this high-growth segment. Whether that will translate into a meaningful near-term impact on Apple’s share price, though, is less certain. Low Foldable Penetration Likely Limits Near-Term ImpactsDespite the buzz, foldables still make up a very small slice of the overall smartphone market. Counterpoint Research reports foldables accounted for just 1.6% of the market in 2025. That low base is the biggest constraint on the iPhone Ultra’s ability to move Apple shares in the near term. Apple, however, could change consumer perceptions and lift adoption. The company is the dominant smartphone vendor in the U.S., holding about 50% market share as of Q3 2025. The absence of an Apple foldable option likely limited broader foldable adoption. Even in China—the largest foldable market—penetration remains modest. Omdia estimates foldables were only 3.2% of the Chinese market in H1 2025. After several years on the market, that raises questions about how large foldables can become. Looking further ahead, IDC expects growth to slow after 2026—declining from a 30% jump in 2026 to about 9.3% by 2029—yet still outpace non-foldable smartphones, which IDC projects will not exceed 3% annual growth from 2026 to 2029. IDC also sees Apple continuing to gain share, with shipment market share rising to 34% by 2029. 2026: A Test Run for Apple’s Foldable AmbitionsThe picture for foldables is mixed. Sales could grow much faster than the overall market, but they are starting from a tiny base. If consumers embrace the iPhone Ultra and Apple captures meaningful share, the stock could see a modest uplift in late 2026. Longer-term effects could be more consequential if foldables become a sustainable, high-growth business for Apple. The company could also enjoy margin benefits if the iPhone Ultra’s price point is as high as IDC projects. However, sustainable is the key word: a 2023 Kantar report found 55% of consumers who bought foldables later switched back to conventional smartphones. Overall, foldables remain a niche market today, and the iPhone Ultra alone is not a primary reason to own Apple stock. Still, shares could see meaningful upside over a multi-year horizon if Apple’s foldable push proves successful and convinces customers to stick with the form factor beyond 2026. |
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