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Special Report Intuitive Machines Holds Ground Despite Earnings MissAuthored by Chris Markoch. Article Posted: 3/20/2026. 
Key Points - Intuitive Machines stock held steady despite a significant earnings miss as investors focused on strong forward guidance for 2026.
- The company’s revenue forecast of up to $1 billion is supported by a growing backlog and recent strategic acquisitions.
- A technical Bollinger Band squeeze and high short interest suggest LUNR stock could see a major move in the coming months.
- Special Report: Elon's "Hidden" Company
Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ: LUNR) saw positive price action after delivering its Q4 2025 earnings report on March 19. Investors may have expected worse. Intuitive Machines, which is not yet profitable, reported a loss per share of $0.34, well above the forecasted loss of $0.05. Revenue also came in light at $44.79 million versus analysts' expectations of $53.37 million. There were, however, positives in the report, and the company is guiding for a strong 2026. Execution will now matter more than ever. Investors Have Seen the Acquisition, Now They Need the Growth Any company that's involved in lunar missions can make investors overlook fundamentals. But it's in the fundamentals where the bullish case for Intuitive Machines is beginning to take shape. The company was in acquisition mode in 2025, acquiring KinetX Aerospace and Lanteris Space Systems. Deals like these aren't uncommon for aerospace companies that need to scale. According to CEO Steve Altemus, the transactions were intended to "significantly expand our scale, addressable market, and growth opportunities." But the acquisitions came at a cost. Cash outflows for the Lanteris purchase of approximately $403 million, plus related expenses, reduced the company's cash on hand by more than 50% year over year to $272 million. Even with a $176 million capital raise, liquidity remains a concern. That makes LUNR's post-earnings gain consequential. Investors will only reward potential for so long; at some point the company must start delivering results. The encouraging sign is that Intuitive Machines appears positioned to do that. One of the highlights of the report was the forward guidance: the company issued full-year revenue guidance of $900 million to $1 billion. Even at the low end, that would be more than a fourfold increase from 2025. Management says the backlog supports roughly two-thirds of that outlook. Technicals Paint a Mixed Picture The daily chart shows a stock catching its breath after an explosive run. LUNR surged from roughly $8 to nearly $24 between December and January before pulling back into the consolidation range where it trades today. Such a cooldown is normal — and healthy — after a move of that magnitude. What's drawing technical attention now is a Bollinger Band squeeze forming on the daily chart. After expanding dramatically during January's rally, the bands have been narrowing through February and into March. This setup often precedes a significant directional move. The 50-day simple moving average sits around $18, with the stock currently trading just below it at about $17 — under the band midline. That nuance matters: the consolidation is slightly bearish, with price lodging below the midline rather than pressing the upper band. Bulls would like to see LUNR close back above the 50-day SMA to regain momentum. By itself, the Bollinger squeeze is neutral — it signals that volatility is likely to increase, not which way price will move. Given the broader fundamental picture, the direction of the breakout will tell investors a lot about where LUNR may head in 2026.  Patience May Be Rewarded
Investors should remember that Intuitive Machines is not yet profitable and may not be for some time. That doesn't automatically make it a poor investment. The space economy is expanding, and the company's backlog suggests its growth story is based on contracts and work in hand rather than just hopes. After a 143% gain over the past 12 months, many investors are cautious about pushing the stock higher. That sets up a common tug-of-war between institutional investors and retail traders. Institutions remain net buyers and continue to add shares at a ratio above 2.5-to-1. At the same time, traders are actively shorting LUNR. Short interest exceeds 27%, which could weigh on the stock if broader market conditions weaken — or it could fuel a sharp short squeeze if sentiment turns positive. Intuitive Machines has grown into a mid-cap company that is drawing analyst attention, and most analysts are bullish. But in a market where some investors are fleeing to safety, holding LUNR requires conviction. The encouraging part: that conviction may not need to be long-term — a quarter or two of execution could be enough for investors to see meaningful payoffs. | 
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