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Special Report
Q1 2026 Telecom Wars: Analyst Eye 30% Gains in T-Mobile Post-EarningsAuthor: Leo Miller. Article Published: 5/3/2026. 
Key Points
- AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile all gained after their latest earnings reports.
- Verizon and T-Mobile increased their full-year guidance, leading to larger upside moves than AT&T.
- Analysts are optimistic about T-Mobile, forecasting significant appreciation ahead.
- Special Report: Elon Musk: This Could Turn $100 into $100,000
AT&T (NYSE: T), Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ), and T-Mobile US (NASDAQ: TMUS) are the three dominant players in the U.S. telecom industry. These companies compete aggressively for customers across mobile connectivity, as well as home and business internet services. In late April, all three reported earnings, giving investors their latest look at how the telecom battle is unfolding. Notably, there was no clear “loser” in Q1 2026, and each of these stocks gained after its results.
Even so, markets showed a clear difference in how impressed they were with each company’s performance. Let’s take a closer look at what happened among these telecom giants in Q1 2026. AT&T Beats, Convergence Gains ImpressStarting with AT&T, the company delivered beats on both the top and bottom lines. Revenue rose 2.9% year over year (YOY) to $31.51 billion, exceeding expectations of $31.29 billion. Adjusted earnings per share increased 11.8% YOY to 57 cents, ahead of estimates of 55 cents. Net wireless subscribers rose by 294,000. Although that figure was down 9% YOY, it still topped estimates. AT&T also continued to show strength in broadband, which refers to internet service for home and business customers. The company added 584,000 total fiber and fixed wireless customers, with additions split evenly between the two categories. AT&T also made strong progress on its “convergence strategy.” Its convergence rate measures the percentage of home internet customers who are also wireless subscribers. On a reported basis, the figure came in at 42%. However, AT&T added 1.1 million fiber customers through its recent deal with Lumen Technologies (NYSE: LUMN), which dilutes reported convergence. Adjusted for this, the company’s organic convergence rate was 44.6%. That was a significant increase from 40.9% in Q1 2025 and marked the company’s fastest YOY convergence growth rate ever. Overall, these results helped AT&T post a slight 0.4% gain after earnings. Verizon Makes Strong Headway on Long-Term TransformationVerizon’s results were more mixed. The company’s revenue rose 2.7% YOY to $34.44 billion, but missed estimates of $34.79 billion. However, adjusted EPS came in strong at $1.28, up 7.6%, and beat estimates of $1.19. Verizon's net wireless subscriber additions totaled 55,000. While softer than AT&T’s additions, the result was much better than the company’s loss of 289,000 subscribers a year ago. It also beat estimates, marking Verizon's first positive Q1 additions in 13 years. Broadband additions were relatively in line with recent trends, coming in at 341,000. Importantly, Verizon raised both its full-year adjusted EPS guidance and net wireless subscriber addition guidance. It now expects adjusted EPS to rise 5% to 6%, up from prior expectations of 4% to 5%. It also sees wireless additions in the top half of its 750,000 to 1 million range. Verizon’s lighter revenue growth but strong EPS results show that its new strategy is on track. The company is focusing on delivering more value to customers rather than raising prices without offering more in return. Meanwhile, it is cutting costs across the organization. While this creates a near-term revenue headwind, it positions the company for more sustainable and profitable long-term growth. Overall, markets rewarded Verizon with a moderate 1.5% post-earnings gain. T-Mobile: Beats and Raised Guidance Lead to Strong Up-MoveLast up is T-Mobile, which stole the show during the quarter. The company posted revenue of $23.11 billion, once again leading the industry in growth at 10.6%. That figure was slightly above estimates of $22.97 billion. EPS fell 12% YOY to 2.27, but that was largely due to costs associated with its acquisition of UScellular, which created a 43-cent headwind. Notably, the company’s EPS still significantly exceeded estimates of $2.06. T-Mobile’s net wireless subscriber additions of 217,000 beat estimates, and the company raised its guidance on multiple fronts. The midpoint of its full-year net wireless subscriber addition guidance rose by 50,000 to 1 million. The company also increased guidance for several profit metrics, including adjusted free cash flow. The midpoint of that figure rose by $50 million to $18.4 billion. The company led internet service providers in broadband additions, which came in above 500,000. Pricing among wireless customers was another strength. T-Mobile’s average revenue per account (ARPA) rose 3.9% YOY to $151.93 and increased slightly from Q4 2025. The market’s reaction to T-Mobile’s results was clearly the most positive in this group, with shares rising by approximately 6.1% after earnings. Analysts Eye Continued Strength for T-MobileResults across the telecom industry were solid in Q1 2026. Looking ahead, analysts see the most upside potential in T-Mobile. The MarketBeat consensus price target near $259 implies more than 30% upside in the shares. The average of targets updated after the company’s report is almost exactly in line with that figure, at just below $260. Notably, all analysts issuing updates after the report gave T-Mobile a Buy, Overweight, or Outperform rating. |
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